by Uroš Popadić

Research Forum Coordinator,

European Movement in Serbia

Column – Research Forum, European Movement in Serbia

The recent crisis in the Caribbean and the escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela is no accident nor an impulsive act, but could rather be the culmination of long-standing disputes. In the last few years Venezuela has increasingly opened up towards China and Russia, the former being interested in keeping a foothold in the Western Hemisphere, and the latter looking for allies wherever it can find them, with both looking to counter US influence and undermine its positions. Going into history we can trace Venezuela’s current course in from 1973 when it gained a young and ambitious president, Carlos Perez, through a democratic election and on the back of a surge of democratic enthusiasm. His ambition led him to radical changes in foreign policy, as he nationalized the oil industry and supported left wing causes around the world, becoming a thorn in the eye of the US. The increase in oil prices due to the oil crisis helped usher in a period of growth, but also a period of corruption and cronyism, which lasted until the collapse of oil prices in the 80s also collapsed the economy and the standard of living, which by then relied on public subsidies.

Perez supported Cuba and Panama at a time of their tension with the US, however he maintained a moderate stance rather than a hostile one, even with strong disagreements with US policy. This coincided with an increased US involvement in Latin-American affairs, both through its support for anti-Soviet governments and its war on drugs. President Nixon designated the situation with drugs and drug trafficking as a major problem for national security, creating a long-standing excuse for intervention and adventure. Over the next two decades billions of dollars were spent on anti-drug activity in Latin america and it became a way through which the US increased its activity in the region. However this tension was nothing compared with the tensions that would emerge when Hugo Chavez took power. Chavez, a military officer who failed to seize the government through a coup in 1992 at the head of the revolutionary left wing “Bolivarian movement”, was eventually elected to the presidency in 1998, which brought in an era of democratic backsliding still continuing today. Chavez then abused his position to carry out a left wing authoritarian and populist “revolution”, changing the constitution in 1999 and creating a party-affiliated militia and using the profits of the oil industry to subsidise the economy. His foreign policy was openly anti-American, and he accused the US of plotting his downfall and the invasion of Venezuela.

Chavez criticized US foreign policy in relation to major international crises, giving support to its opponents while also criticising US leaders and even its democratic character. The support for Cuba increased as Chavez subsidized the Castro government with billions of dollars, while Chavez attacked the US for a supposedly imperialistic attitude towards the continent.  His government also improved the relationship with China significantly, as he sought to find new allies while distancing Venezuela from the US. China was in a period of expanding its influence in the global south, giving favorable loans and making trade deals. Chavez ideologically connected the “Bolivarian” socialism of his part to Chinese Communism, while supporting its foreign policy, however his Chinese counterparts saw no ideological connection and stressed pragmaticism. Economic cooperation between them increased significantly and China gave multi-billion loans to Venezuela. As the country experienced significant economic issues, China did not risk additional investment but did not take hostile actions to regain their losses, doing so for political and strategic reasons. Russia was another new ally for Chavez, and he secured multi-billion dollar purchases of military equipment from it, while increasing military cooperation between the countries. Russia was all too happy to find an avenue for its military exports and an ally for its positions on international affairs. This was part of Chavez’s foreign policy of building what he called a multipolar world in opposition to the US.

In 2013 Chavez was replaced by the equally intransigent Maduro, who took over a failing and indebted economy, being picked by Chavez to replace him. This period saw a massive exodus of Venezuelan people due to widespread poverty and socio-economic hardships, as well as due to entrenched corruption. Increased social unrest caused by economic failure led to protests and riots, while Maduro increased his level of authoritarianism by undermining the fledgling national Assembly.  In 2015 in response to these anti-government protests, the US imposed targeted sanctions against Venezuelan government officials for the persecution of political opponents, curtailment of press freedoms, use of violence and human rights violations and abuses. Not only that, but the Obama administration declared Venezuela a threat to US national security in 2015, which Maduro interpreted as being based in an attempt to topple his socialist government. Around the same time in 2016 Venezuela was suspended from MERCOSUR and increasingly turned towards promoting an alternative economic and political cooperation format based on socialist ideas, calling it a Bolivarian alliance. This idea appeared back in 2004 through an agreement with Cuba, however the very limited success of this initiative undermined its regional influence. In 2018 it even left the Organisation of American States after claiming that it was under too much US influence, becoming even more isolated than before.

This coincided with an increased tension with the US as in 2017 president Trump said that a military invasion of Venezuela was not ruled out due to Maduro’s autocratic rule and the resulting worsening situation in the country being a security risk in the region. Even with the threatening rhetoric, he decided on sanctions and diplomatic pressure instead. Venezuela has had strained relations with a number of neighbours, being openly isolated at times, with specifically strained relations with Colombia and Argentina. Venezuela’s relations with China and Russia have been positive even before Chavez, who further developed them, and reached a new level under Maduro who increasingly sought help outside of the hemisphere. China has increased investment in the country, especially in infrastructure and oil, and there are many joint projects by the two countries. Russia is Venezuela’s most important military partner and a major source of military equipment, and Venezuela has aligned towards it at the international stage. The 2018 presidential elections were widely condemned as rigged by Maduro, leading western and neighboring countries to recognize Juan Guaido as president in January of next year. China and Russia both congratulated Maduro on winning and did not dispute the elections in the slightest. In fact they accused the US of interfering in Venezuelan affairs in order to depose Maduro. Later, Maduro returned the favour by supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trump continued the policy of enmity towards the Maduro government, and imposed an embargo against Venezuela, even accusing Maduro of running a drug cartel, and close to the end of his first term he offered a 15 million reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, treating him as a criminal, while increasing US military presence in the Caribbean sea.

During this period of increased tensions Maduro acted in aggressive way towards Guyana, a neighbouring country, and unexpectedly brought about a referendum about annexing roughly half of its territory in 2023. Even with minimal turnout, he declared the disputed region annexed. This led Brazil to bring troops to the border, and the US intervened by announcing military exercises with Guyana. Such unilateral action led to a further isolation of Venezuela in the region, and increased security concerns. This did not hinder Maduro nor weaken his position significantly, as he again won an election in 2024, which was considered even less free and fair by most observers. Neighbouring states became increasingly worried about the situation in the country, as the elections were followed by widespread protests and riots of an unprecedented level, so that the OAS even convened an emergency meeting. Colombia, Argentina and Mexico were especially critical, and of all the states in the region only Bolivia accepted the elections as valid. All EU countries, as well as the US and Canada, consider the elections to have been rigged, with Russia and China being the only major states that accepted the electoral result and congratulated Maduro, with Russia calling him a close ally in the struggle against a unipolar world. Then came Trump’s second turn, and he took a more active stance in the region. Officially his enmity was as part of his anti-illegal immigration and anti drug-cartel policies, as he gave support of Venezuelan dissidents while sharply criticising Maduro and accusing him of complicity in the international drug trade.

In August 2025 the US government increased the 15 bounty on Maduro to 50 million.  This was followed by a deployment in the region of US warships, which were meant to restrain drug trafficking, and which destroyed multiple Venezuelan vessels. Officially the reason for this was to combat drug trafficking, yet this has been widely considered to be pressure against Maduro in order to make him resign. The war on drugs and the war on terror were mixed together in the US justification, as the narco cartels that are acted against were called narco-terrorists as early as 2020. Trump had the largest US aircraft carrier sent to the Caribbean sea, bringing a naval battlegroup and causing Maduro to panic and to say that the US had gone mad and wanted to conquer Venezuela and plunder its riches, threatening to mobilize militias against what he termed the greatest threat to the country in a century.  Even with Venezuela’s isolated regional position, many neighbours supported it against the threat, as they saw it as US interference in internal regional relations, and even Colombia spoke against interventionism in the region. Not all regional states are against US interventionism, yet open support is lacking as intervention would not only change regional relations but would have repercussions on the global stage. China remained somewhat restrained in its support, while Russia gave full and open support to Venezuelan sovereignty while accusing the US of breaking international law and norms. Maduro asked Russia for military supplies and lauded previous military purchases.

Interestingly, before this newest crisis, Venezuelan relations with Russia were improving, and in May 2025 the two countries even signed a strategic partnership. Maduro was present at the victory dan military parade in Moscow, and the governments discussed joint initiatives on gas and oil. In August 2025 China also signed new deals with Venezuela, developing new projects related to energy. While China does not directly purchase oil from the country due to US energy sanctions, its private companies still do business in Venezuela and oil is still flowing through intermediaries. This development can be traced to 2023 when China signed agreements with Venezuela on trade and energy, opening the possibility of special economic zones inside of the country. It is also Venezuela’s largest creditor, providing good conditions and allowing leniency. This was the first major meeting between the two sides in 5 years, amd they signed a strategic partnership, creating both commercial and strategic cooperation. Xi said the two countries were good friends and have high rust between them. Maduro gave support to China’s belt and road initiative, and has tried to increase oil exports to China, and has expressed interest in the country joining BRICS.

In the lead-up to the current crisis we see an interesting development of Venezuela’s ties to the strategic opponents of the US, and as president Trump marked both of them as strategic competitors, the increased pressure on Venezuela can be seen in that light rather than through the prism of the war on drugs. Venezuela adopted the Russian and Chinese discourse of opposing western unilateral hegemony and domination, providing a space for the competitors of the US to develop relations with an unpredictable and hostile state in its wider neighbourhood. The Soviet Union had undermined the Monroe doctrine of US paramountcy in the western hemisphere during the cold war, and the uneasy feeling of insecurity has remained with both continued Russian interest and increased Chinese interest, motivating the US to do something proactive and even preemptive. Venezuela is not the main origin of the drugs in the US, nor is it a threat to its security interests, leading to the possibility that this crisis has occurred due to favorable international circumstances for a regional spoiler regime, or rather even a rogue regime, to be curtailed so that stability and security can return both to Venezuela and the region through a return of democracy. Venezuela’s confrontation with the United States stems from decades of worsening relations driven by nationalist, anti-American policies, democratic erosion, and the country’s deepening alignment with China and Russia. Under Chávez and later Maduro, Venezuela used oil wealth to oppose U.S. influence, creating regional tensions and increasing isolation as its economy collapsed.

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